The latest U.S. consumer-price data came in softer than expected. That set off excitement, hope and spreadsheets full of rate-cut fantasies. Markets now put roughly a one-in-four chance on a Federal Reserve cut in January and are almost certain about one by April. Yet the same report came with missing data thanks to a government shutdown and some methodological quirks. Even the banks cheering the number admit it deserves a raised eyebrow.